New Zealand Dollar: Long offers best risk-reward ahead of RBNZ – Societe Generale

Among G10 currencies, NZD is Kit Juckes’s top pick this week. The Societe Generale strategist favours the New Zealand dollar ahead of this week’s central bank meetings. Markets price in a near-certain RBNZ rate rise, followed by two further increases by mid-2026. Improving growth prospects and NZD’s underperformance against AUD this year underpin Juckes’s view that it offers the most attractive risk-reward for a long position, even after its recent gains.

G10: NZD Seen as Leading Trade

"The markets are priced for a very remote chance of an ECB rate hike, a small chance of a hike by the Fed, a strong chance of a Bank of Canada hike, and almost certainly an RBNZ hike."

"The two non-hikers are expected to raise rates in December, and this week’s expected hikers are likely to act two more times by mid-2027, so the messaging needs to be strong in both cases."

"As for NZD, it does have the advantage that growth expectations are picking up, and the currency has lost a lot of ground to the AUD this year."

"It looks like the best risk-reward long going into tomorrow’s meeting, despite recent gains."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)