$4,100 eludes gold as attention turns to US Nonfarm Payrolls

A US Dollar recovery pushes Gold lower before the US jobs release.
Bullion could face further losses if stronger US employment data boosts the Dollar.
Liquidity-related selling threatens Gold as AI stocks lead the equity rout.

Gold (XAU/USD) remains under pressure below $4,100 on Friday. The metal reached a two-week peak of $4,146 on Thursday but is now weighed down by a recovering US Dollar (USD). Markets await the US Nonfarm Payrolls release at 13:30 GMT. Having touched an intraday trough of $4,035, XAU/USD is trading near $4,065 at the time of writing, a daily decline of 0.81%.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Forecasts put October US job growth at 65K, compared with 29K in September, with the Unemployment Rate expected to remain at 4.2%. An upside surprise would signal labour market stability and give the Federal Reserve (Fed) greater scope to continue its fight against inflation.

Expectations of a December interest rate increase could consequently strengthen, supporting the US Dollar and adding to Gold’s downside pressure. Weaker figures, by contrast, could reduce those expectations, undermine the Greenback and support a bullion rebound.

At around 102.00, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is 0.40% higher on the day. The index measures the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies.

Gold also faces the risk of liquidity-related selling as the AI-led equity decline intensifies. Investors are reducing positions to generate cash, meet margin calls or offset losses in other assets.

Despite these pressures, bullion is on course to end a three-week run of losses, helped by a steep fall in Oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has lost around 12% this week. A Democratic sweep of Congress in the US midterm elections has raised expectations that lawmakers could constrain President Donald Trump’s military campaign against Iran.

Diplomatic efforts continue, but a negotiated resolution to the US-Iran war still looks remote. A partial recovery in Oil prices is also restricting Gold’s gains. US President Donald Trump said the US might need to “destroy” the remainder of Iran and that people would “know soon enough” whether he would take action.

Since the war started in late February, bullion has been driven in large part by crude prices and their implications for inflation and interest rates. Rising energy costs have increased pressure on central banks to tighten monetary policy, hurting the non-yielding metal.

Today’s US Dollar Performance

The US Dollar recorded its strongest performance against the New Zealand Dollar today. The table below presents today’s percentage moves in the US Dollar (USD) against the major currencies listed.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.39%	0.41%	0.28%	0.38%	0.85%	0.93%	0.11%
EUR	-0.39%		0.02%	-0.09%	-0.00%	0.46%	0.53%	-0.29%
GBP	-0.41%	-0.02%		-0.11%	-0.02%	0.45%	0.51%	-0.31%
JPY	-0.28%	0.09%	0.11%		0.11%	0.57%	0.64%	-0.18%
CAD	-0.38%	0.00%	0.02%	-0.11%		0.46%	0.53%	-0.28%
AUD	-0.85%	-0.46%	-0.45%	-0.57%	-0.46%		0.07%	-0.74%
NZD	-0.93%	-0.53%	-0.51%	-0.64%	-0.53%	-0.07%		-0.80%
CHF	-0.11%	0.29%	0.31%	0.18%	0.28%	0.74%	0.80%

Percentage movements between the major currencies appear in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, choosing the US Dollar on the left and following its row across to the Japanese Yen gives the percentage change for USD (base)/JPY (quote) in the corresponding cell.