Week ahead: US Midterm Elections, Payrolls and BoE lead the agenda

The US Dollar (USD) traded close to its key 200-week SMA. This week’s rebound reversed two consecutive declines, supported by a sustained rise in crude oil prices as a resolution to the Middle East crisis remained out of sight. The Federal Reserve’s hawkish message at its October 28 meeting provided further support for the Greenback.

Around 102.00, the US Dollar Index (DXY) finished the week with solid gains. That left it slightly below its weekly high near 102.50. The US data calendar opens on November 2 with the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, ahead of the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Construction Spending. November 3 brings JOLTs Job Openings, Factory Orders, the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index and the API’s weekly US crude oil inventory report. Results from the US Midterm Elections should also begin to emerge. On November 4, the regular MBA Mortgage Applications release precedes ADP Employment Change, Balance of Trade figures, the final S&P Global Services PMI, the ISM Services PMI and the EIA’s weekly US crude oil stockpile report. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Challenger Job Cuts follow on November 5. Rounding off the calendar on November 6 are NFP, the Unemployment Rate and the preliminary U-Mich Consumer Sentiment reading.

After extending the previous week’s losses to revisit 17-month lows near 1.1100, EUR/USD briefly rebounded to just above 1.1200 on Thursday. Germany’s Retail Sales open the calendar on November 2, alongside the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI readings for Germany and the eurozone. November 4 brings the final S&P Global Services PMI for the EMU and Germany, ahead of the euro bloc’s preliminary Inflation Rate. Due on November 5 are the S&P Global Construction PMI for Germany and the Eurozone, followed by Germany’s Factory Orders and the bloc’s Producer Prices. Germany’s Industrial Production and the EMU’s Producer Prices complete the schedule on November 6.

A move into the 1.3430 area, a six-week high, helped GBP/USD secure a third straight weekly gain. The UK calendar begins with the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI on November 2, followed by the final S&P Global Services PMI on November 4. After the S&P Global Construction PMI on November 5, the Lloyds House Price Index and BBA Mortgage Rate round off the week’s releases on November 6.

Having rallied above the 158.00 barrier earlier in the week, USD/JPY gave back some ground but still closed with solid gains in the low 157.00s. Japan’s final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is scheduled for November 2, with Monetary Base figures following on November 4. November 5 brings the final S&P Global Services PMI, the BoJ Minutes and a 10-Year JGB Auction. Average Cash Earnings and weekly Foreign Bond Investment figures follow on November 6.

The break above 0.7000 became more established as AUD/USD edged higher this week, extending its recovery. Australia’s final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI leads the November 2 releases, followed by preliminary Building Permits and Private House Approvals data. The November 3 schedule pairs the Ai Group Manufacturing Index with the final S&P Global Services PMI. Household Spending figures follow on November 4, ahead of Balance of Trade data on November 5.

November 2–6: Central Bank Speakers and the Economic Outlook

• November 2 brings remarks from the Fed’s Goolsbee.
• On November 3, the BoC’s Macklem is scheduled to speak before the ECB’s Machado and Donnery.
• November 4 features remarks from the ECB’s Lane.
• On November 5, remarks from the Fed’s Hammack and Barkin precede those from the ECB’s Lagarde, Schnabel and Lane.
• The November 6 speaking schedule starts with the Fed’s Logan, Williams, Musalem and Bowman, followed by the ECB’s Donnery and the BoE’s Pill.

November 3–5: Central Bank Meetings and Rate Decisions

• November 3 brings the RBA’s rate decision (25 bps hike).
• On November 4, meetings are scheduled for the Riksbank (25 bps hike) and the National Bank of Poland (unch).
• The November 5 meetings begin with Norges Bank (unch), followed by BNM (unch), the BoE (25 bps hike) and Banxico (unch).