176.00 Area: EUR/JPY Price Forecast After Bounce From Fresh 12-Month Lows

175.20 marked a new 12-month low for EUR/JPY on Friday.
At 34.76, the 14-day Relative Strength Index signals moderate downside momentum rather than an extreme reading.
At 176.98, the nine-day EMA provides the first resistance level.

176.10 is the approximate level for EUR/JPY in Friday’s Asian session. The cross is recovering after two consecutive days of declines. On the daily chart, however, trading remains contained within a descending channel, signalling that the bearish bias persists.

Below both the nine- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), EUR/JPY continues its corrective phase. These layers of dynamic resistance limit the cross and maintain a bearish near-term outlook. Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 34.76, just above oversold territory, suggesting that downward momentum persists without reaching an extreme.

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Friday’s decline took EUR/JPY to a 12-month low of 175.20. The descending channel’s lower boundary offers additional support around 175.00. A break beneath this confluence support zone would leave the cross exposed to the area around 169.72, its 15-month low.

Resistance starts at 176.98, the nine-day EMA, ahead of the descending channel’s upper boundary near 178.70. Beyond that, the 50-day EMA stands at 179.54. Clearing this medium-term moving average would trigger a bullish reversal and support a move towards the all-time high of 187.95, set on April 17.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY — EUR/JPY: Daily Technical Chart

8.2/10: BoJ’s Himino highlights AI inflation risks, Yen stays alert

8.2/10 is BoJ’s Himino’s score on FXS Speechtracker. Matching the historical average exactly, it reflects a consistently firm stance rather than an unexpected change. His focus on robust AI-related capital expenditure and exports, higher medium- and long-term inflation expectations, and underlying inflation approaching the 2% target signals a clear hawkish bias. This contrasts with financial conditions that remain accommodative and real rates that are still low.

Expectations that the Bank of Japan is moving closer to further normalisation are reinforced by the warning that delaying policy adjustments could increase upside inflation risks and harm the economy. In FX markets, rapid growth in bank lending, heightened inflation risks and the stated objective of achieving stable prices through appropriate monetary policy favour a gradual retreat from ultra-loose settings. If accompanied by concrete action, this backdrop would offer modest support for the Yen.

(An AI tool assisted in preparing this story’s technical analysis. Learn more.)

Euro Performance Today

Against the Japanese Yen, the Euro recorded its strongest performance today. The table below details today’s percentage movements in the Euro (EUR) against the major currencies listed.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.03%	0.04%	0.13%	-0.00%	0.04%	-0.22%	0.09%
EUR	-0.03%		0.02%	0.11%	-0.04%	-0.01%	-0.25%	0.06%
GBP	-0.04%	-0.02%		0.08%	-0.04%	-0.02%	-0.26%	0.04%
JPY	-0.13%	-0.11%	-0.08%		-0.15%	-0.11%	-0.37%	-0.06%
CAD	0.00%	0.04%	0.04%	0.15%		0.05%	-0.23%	0.09%
AUD	-0.04%	0.01%	0.02%	0.11%	-0.05%		-0.26%	0.05%
NZD	0.22%	0.25%	0.26%	0.37%	0.23%	0.26%		0.31%
CHF	-0.09%	-0.06%	-0.04%	0.06%	-0.09%	-0.05%	-0.31%

Percentage movements between major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency from the left-hand column and the quote currency from the top row. Selecting the Euro on the left and following its row across to the US Dollar, for instance, gives the percentage change for EUR (base)/USD (quote) in the corresponding cell.