0.8400: EUR/GBP Price Forecast as pair attempts to reclaim level after reaching oversold territory

0.8400 remains out of reach for EUR/USD. The pair has recovered from 17-month lows around 0.8370.
Euro gains are likely to face constraints from elevated oil prices and worries over France's public finances.
Recent UK releases support expectations of a November BoE rate increase, underpinning the Pound's strength.

0.8390 is the approximate level for EUR/GBP on Thursday. The Euro (EUR) is staging a modest corrective rebound against the British Pound (GBP) after a sell-off of more than 2.7% from late September highs left the Relative Strength Index deeply oversold across most timeframes. Wednesday brought fresh 17-month lows near 0.8370, while 0.8400 continues to limit the recovery.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Thursday's modest improvement in market sentiment is lending support to the Euro. However, elevated oil prices, persistent concerns over France's fiscal position and the government's difficulty in addressing those issues are likely to restrict the pair's rebound.

By contrast, the Pound is likely to retain its strength. Wednesday's hot UK inflation readings, together with last week's positive Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, have cleared the way for the Bank of England (BoE) to raise interest rates at its November meeting.

Further indications about next month's meeting might emerge when BoE Governor Andrew Bailey speaks to the press later in the day. In Europe, European Central Bank (ECB) official and Bank of Italy Governor Fabio Panetta is due to speak before the European Commission publishes its preliminary Consumer Confidence report.

Technical Analysis: 0.8393 rebound looks like a dead cat bounce

Four consecutive weeks of depreciation leave EUR/GBP's broader downtrend intact as the pair trades at 0.8393. A modest corrective rebound accompanies a recovery in the 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) from deeply oversold territory, though the indicator is still below 40. Despite a marginally positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), the overall technical picture suggests that sellers are likely to meet rallies.

Wednesday's high around 0.8400 provides the first resistance, ahead of the October 19 and 20 peaks near 0.8430. A break below Wednesday's low around 0.8373 would put the next downside targets at the May 2025 low near 0.8355 and the April 2025 trough around 0.8320.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro Performance Today

Against the major currencies listed below, the Euro (EUR) recorded its strongest performance against the Australian Dollar today. The table sets out the percentage changes for each pairing.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.13%	-0.10%	-0.61%	-0.15%	0.20%	0.13%	-0.38%
EUR	0.13%		0.01%	-0.51%	-0.06%	0.33%	0.26%	-0.28%
GBP	0.10%	-0.01%		-0.53%	-0.09%	0.30%	0.22%	-0.29%
JPY	0.61%	0.51%	0.53%		0.45%	0.82%	0.72%	0.23%
CAD	0.15%	0.06%	0.09%	-0.45%		0.37%	0.30%	-0.22%
AUD	-0.20%	-0.33%	-0.30%	-0.82%	-0.37%		-0.09%	-0.59%
NZD	-0.13%	-0.26%	-0.22%	-0.72%	-0.30%	0.09%		-0.48%
CHF	0.38%	0.28%	0.29%	-0.23%	0.22%	0.59%	0.48%

To read the heat map of percentage changes between major currencies, select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, starting with the Euro on the left and moving horizontally to the US Dollar gives the percentage change for EUR (base)/USD (quote) in the corresponding cell.