Cardano Price Forecast: Mounting selling pressure deepens ADA’s bearish reversal

• Over 4% lower on Thursday, Cardano extends its slide below $0.2000 following a break beneath a rising trendline.
• Surging long liquidations, falling Open Interest and a funding rate that has turned negative point to seller dominance in derivatives trading.
• Strengthening downward momentum leaves ADA’s technical outlook tilted to the downside.

Over 4% has been wiped off Cardano (ADA) so far on Thursday. Heavy selling has driven the price below $0.2000. The decline comes alongside a broader cryptocurrency market retreat after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) held the federal funds rate at 3.75%-4.00% on Wednesday. Sellers dominate derivatives trading as bullish positions are liquidated and the funding rate turns negative. A fall below support at $0.1894, the August 30 low, would put Cardano at risk of a deeper correction. 

Cardano Retail Activity Turns Bearish

Retail support for Cardano is weakening alongside the wider cryptocurrency market. Total liquidations reached $338 million over the last 24 hours, according to CoinGlass, including $186 million in long liquidations. The figures point to forced exits from long positions. Leading cryptocurrencies face similar selling pressure: Bitcoin (BTC) has slipped below $80,000, while Ethereum (ETH) has fallen below $2,300.

For Cardano, futures Open Interest (OI) has fallen over 5% over the last 24 hours to $438.16 million, signalling a reduction in the notional value of all active ADA positions. Liquidations over the same period totalled $2.46 million, with long positions accounting for $2.05 million. This concentration suggests sellers retain control as bullish positions are wiped out. 

Meanwhile, the funding rate has fallen to -0.0028%, signalling traders’ willingness to take short positions in anticipation of further declines.

$0.1894 Support in Focus: Cardano Technical Outlook Weakens

At $0.1970 at press time on Thursday, Cardano has extended its October decline to roughly 25%. The price remains well below both the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.2223 and the 200-day EMA at $0.2407, indicating that the broader trend remains constrained.

A roughly 6% fall on October 22 confirmed ADA’s bearish reversal. The move breached the rising support trendline linking the June 25 and August 18 lows, near $0.2223. Immediate support now lies at the horizontal $0.1894 level, established by the August 30 low. Should a break below this zone be confirmed, the August 18 low near $0.1712 and the July 28 low near $0.1537 could come under threat.

Momentum readings add to the bearish picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 32, close to oversold territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line holds below its signal line and the histogram remains negative, suggesting continued downward pressure.

Any recovery would first encounter resistance at $0.2223, where the former trendline-break level coincides with the 50-day EMA. Only a sustained move above these levels would ease bearish pressure, bringing the more significant 200-day EMA at $0.2408 into focus as the next higher barrier.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)