$81,000 reclaimed: Bitcoin Price Forecast as BTC traders await Fed policy decision and Big Tech earnings

• $81,000 is back in reach as Bitcoin retakes the level on Wednesday. The recovery continues ahead of the Fed’s policy announcement and forthcoming Big Tech results.
• $175.99 million flowed into spot Bitcoin ETFs on Tuesday, extending inflows to a second consecutive day.
• Weak participation and inactive investors are central concerns in a K33 Research report, which warns that a sharp increase in volatility is imminent.

$81,000 was reclaimed by Bitcoin (BTC) on Wednesday. The recovery extended as investors awaited the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy announcement and forthcoming Big Tech results. A second consecutive day of inflows into spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) this week pointed to mildly bullish institutional demand. 

Separately, subdued participation and investor inactivity feature prominently among the concerns in a K33 Research report. It cautions that the Crypto King could be nearing a period of greater volatility.

$175.99 million in ETF inflows signals cautious optimism before Fed decision

Tuesday’s spot Bitcoin ETF inflows reached $175.99 million, compared with $110.34 million on Monday, according to SoSoValue. The figures point to modest institutional buying and a cautiously bullish stance towards Bitcoin. Inflows nevertheless remain below last week’s levels, indicating caution before the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate announcement later on Wednesday.

An unchanged benchmark rate within the current 3.75% to 4.00% target range is the broad expectation for Wednesday’s Fed decision. The CME FedWatch tool puts the market-implied probability of no change at the October meeting at 90.6%, with an 84.4% probability of a December rate increase. For guidance on the central bank’s economic assessment and policy path, traders will scrutinise Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference remarks. 

BTC could face pressure if hawkish comments weaken risk appetite. A more dovish message, by contrast, could underpin its continuing recovery.

Middle East tensions are another source of caution for BTC traders. According to the Wall Street Journal, the US has advised several Gulf Arab countries to prepare for a “short, intense military campaign” following the US midterm elections. 

Crude oil has drawn support from these developments. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained more than 1% on the day to roughly $101 per barrel. Costlier oil could intensify inflation concerns, weaken appetite for risk and limit BTC’s upside.

Q3 Big Tech results draw market focus

Wednesday brings Q3 earnings from Microsoft and Alphabet, with Amazon scheduled to follow on Thursday. These major technology companies’ reports are also drawing investors’ attention. 

Concerns about hyperscaler valuations could ease if the results validate sustained heavy spending on Artificial Intelligence (AI), helping risk appetite. Weak results, however, could intensify the AI-driven sell-off already under way and pressure risk-sensitive assets, including Bitcoin.

1.3% OI volatility signals unusually quiet conditions

Tuesday’s K33 Research report flagged investor inactivity and weak market participation as major concerns for BTC prices. Against that backdrop, it warned that volatility could soon expand.

At 1.3%, the 30-day volatility of perpetual Open Interest (OI) marks the 26th lowest reading since June 2021. Meanwhile, 30-day price volatility sits in this decade’s 2nd percentile. Traders remain on the sidelines, and trading volumes have fallen to lows not reached between March 2024 and June 2026. 

The analyst added: “Calm like this lets leverage build gradually until a price move forces positions to close and pushes prices further. Regimes this quiet rarely last for long, so a volatility expansion looks likely soon. This also fits well with the frantic pace of the upcoming event calendar, setting the stage for prices to once again start swinging,”

$81,113: Bitcoin technical outlook stays mildly bullish

$81,113 is Bitcoin’s trading price on Wednesday. Consolidation above a closely grouped set of Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) keeps the bias constructive and bullish. Below the spot price are the 50-day EMA at $80,816, the 100-day EMA at $77,813 and the 200-day EMA at $76,395. Their position suggests that support for the broader uptrend persists despite the recent retreat. 

Momentum remains restrained. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 46, while Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains negative. Together, these indicators currently suggest consolidation rather than a fresh, forceful advance.

Horizontal resistance around $85,000 is the first significant upside obstacle. Supply at this level previously halted gains, making it the key barrier buyers must overcome to regain upward momentum.

Initial buying interest is expected near the 50-day EMA at $80,816. Further support lies at the 100-day EMA at $77,813, followed by the 200-day EMA around $76,395. A daily close beneath this EMA zone would substantially weaken the existing bullish structure and leave scope for a deeper correction.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)