0.7000 gives way: Aussie drops as US election worries outweigh RBA hike

• AUD/USD declines as geopolitical uncertainty intensifies.
• 4.85% RBA rate follows increase; Bullock offers no forward guidance.
• Iran disputes claims of a near-term peace deal during US midterm voting.

AUD/USD is down 0.44%. The pair trades at 0.6965 late on Tuesday, with the Australian Dollar weakening against the US Dollar as US midterm voting proceeds. Efforts to secure a diplomatic resolution to the US-Iran war have stalled after Iran rejected claims that an agreement was close.

AUD/USD losses deepen as US election risks and stalled Iran talks outweigh RBA rate rise

With the first US midterm exit polls approaching, attention centres on whether Democrats will take control of the US House of Representatives and the US Senate. How US President Donald Trump will respond to the result is another key question. Polymarket puts the probability of a Democratic Senate win at 75%, alongside a 95% chance of the party securing a House majority.

On the US-Iran conflict, a draft memorandum of understanding delivered to Iran by the Qatari delegation has received Washington's approval. A senior Iranian official nevertheless said the two countries remain far from an agreement to end the war.

At 7.5 million, US JOLTS job openings increased 4.5% from the previous month's 7.19 million. The hiring rate edged up from 3.3% to 3.4%, according to the report, while total separations held at 3.3%. Separately, Factory Orders rose 1.8% MoM, exceeding August's 0.3% reading.

Wednesday's US data calendar includes ADP Employment Change and October's ISM Services PMI.

A 6-3 vote at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivered a rate increase to 4.85% a day earlier. Governor Michelle Bullock struck a more neutral tone, noting that the three dissenters preferred to await further data. While acknowledging uncertainty over how high rates need to go, she offered no forward guidance on their future path.

The latest S&P Global Services PMI rose to 48.5 in October from 47.8.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: 0.7059 resistance shapes technical outlook

On the daily chart, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6964. Its position below the simple moving average (SMA) cluster in the Moving Average Triple around 0.7059 maintains a bearish near-term bias. A series of rising trend lines continues to support the price, with nearby structural demand converging around 0.6922. At 41.6, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests momentum is stabilising but remains subdued, rather than signalling a decisive recovery.

The daily SMA cluster near 0.7059 provides the first upside resistance. Beyond it, the horizontal barrier at 0.7198 limits the broader advance. Initial downside support lies in the rising trend-line zone around 0.6922, followed by lower support levels at 0.6897 and 0.6865. Further medium-term floors sit at 0.6833 and 0.6673, with the previous breakout area near 0.6348 offering additional support.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)