0.7035 Area: AUD/USD Price Forecast as Bulls Await Break Above 100-day SMA Resistance

• The 100-day SMA remains a key resistance hurdle for AUD/USD.
• USD support from geopolitical uncertainty and hawkish Fed expectations limits gains in spot prices.
• With the FOMC meeting in focus, expectations of an RBA rate rise underpin the Aussie.

AUD/USD remains above the psychological 0.7000 level. The pair has eased from a fresh one-month high reached earlier on Monday, without securing a decisive break above pivotal resistance at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Through the first half of the European session, traders appear reluctant to take aggressive directional positions ahead of this week's major central bank event and data releases.

Wednesday brings Australian consumer inflation data, followed by the decision from the two-day FOMC meeting. Attention will then turn to Thursday's Advance US Q3 GDP report and US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for signals on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy trajectory. That outlook will shape US Dollar (USD) moves and give the AUD/USD pair a meaningful catalyst.

Volatile oil prices pose inflation risks, fuelling expectations that the US central bank will increase borrowing costs again by year-end. Together with ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, those expectations could keep the safe-haven Greenback supported. However, hawkish expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) limit AUD/USD's downside, suggesting caution before concluding that spot prices have peaked.

Technically, 0.7033, the 100-day SMA, continues to cap AUD/USD, while the pair holds above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its latest decline. Momentum offers tentative signs of recovery: the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has shifted slightly into positive territory, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI), at 52.9, has moved into the upper half of its range. Overhead resistance nevertheless continues to constrain that recovery.

A move through the 100-day SMA at 0.7033 would bring the 50.0% retracement at 0.7064 into focus. Beyond that, resistance stands at the 61.8% level at 0.7105 and the 78.6% retracement at 0.7162, followed by the full recovery barrier at 0.7236. Immediate downside support sits at the 38.2% retracement at 0.7024. Below it lie the 23.6% level at 0.6974 and the recent cycle low near 0.6893.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

AUD/USD daily price chart