【TMGM Financial Recap】Gold Prices Surged Over 5% In A Week, Breaking Through $4,600. Focus On The Jackson Hole Annual Meeting This Week!

The force pushing gold above $4,600 is not singular, but a resonance of three logics; Key technical breakthroughs, systemic instability in the dollar's credit, and the resurgence of geopolitical risks. Behind all of this lies a core issue: a self-rescue move by U.S. Treasury Secretary Besent, which is pushing global capital into the embrace of gold.

The most direct catalyst for this round of gold rally comes from the technical side. Last Wednesday, gold prices surged 4.35% in a single day, marking the largest single-day gain since early February. This rally allowed gold to break through the highly anticipated 100-day moving average near 4380 and briefly climb above the 200-day moving average, which is currently around $4515. For technical traders, the 200-day moving average is the key watershed for judging long-term trends. Once a breakout is effective, it often signals a shift in market sentiment from hesitation to certainty, triggering a concentrated influx of algorithmic trading and trend-following funds. Currently, gold has surpassed all key moving averages, showing a bullish pattern across the board from short-term to long-term moving averages.

On the other hand, last Wednesday, the U.S. Treasury announced it would at least double the repurchase size of long-term Treasury bonds with 10- to 30-year terms, increasing it from $2 billion per transaction to at least $4 billion.

This move aims to suppress the continuously surging long-term Treasury yields, which had reached their highest level since 2007 at a time when the 30-year Treasury yield had reached its highest level. However, the market's response was completely unexpected from the Treasury. After the buyback plan was announced, long-term government bond yields briefly fell but quickly rebounded. Even more seriously, the US dollar index fell sharply, dropping to its lowest level since mid-May. The Treasury's buybacks have added new negative factors to the dollar through two paths: first, to lower U.S. Treasury yields; Second, it has triggered deep market concerns about financial suppression policies.

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains tense. U.S. Treasury Secretary Besent, meanwhile, announced the harshest round of economic sanctions in Iran's history. This stalemate of no war is driving up global energy prices and directly reinforcing gold's appeal as an inflation hedge. When oil and gold prices rise in tandem, a key signal is being sent: the market is pricing in both the geopolitical risk premium and currency depreciation expectations. This week, the market will face a double test. Federal Reserve Chair Walsh will deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, marking Walsh's first appearance since taking office in May. In addition, the US core PCE price index, the second estimate of Q2 GDP, and durable goods orders will all be released Wednesday morning Eastern Time.

Market Insight:

Gold continues to rise at the 4-hour level, with both MACD double lines and volume bars expanding above the zero axis. Short-term overbought signals have appeared, and after a rapid rally, gold prices may undergo a technical pullback. However, even if gold falls back to $4,400, as long as it holds support, it remains a positive signal for bulls.